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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    深圳市人口结构变化与创新发展

    摘要

    深圳承载着率先建设社会主义现代化先行示范区、推进粤港澳大湾区建设和创新发展的重要使命,优良的人口结构是实现这一目标的基础条件。2017年,深圳非户籍人口与户籍人口比例为1。88,常住人口的户籍结构得到显著改善,深圳家庭出现了规模减小、家庭抚养负担有所减轻的趋势;服务业就业人数占社会总就业人数的比重为55。38%,基本处于中等收入国家的水平;拥有21。54万科技活动人员,超过广州水平但落后于北京和上海。预测结果显示,2050年以前深圳人口规模保持持续增长的趋势是大概率事件,将继续维持一段相对较长的人口红利期。依据深圳人口特征和人口结构变化,提出推动深圳创新发展的政策建议:合理利用人口条件,继续保持人口规模优势、人口红利优势、人口包容性优势和人力资本优势;主动适应人口挑战,从社会、经济、文化、政治领域寻求整体性的治理方案;加强创新人口战略研究,为深圳未来的创新发展战略选择提供政策依据。

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    Abstract

    Shenzhen is saddled with the important mission of taking the lead in building a demonstration zone for socialist modernization and promoting the construction and innovative development of the Great Bay Area of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao. Good population structure is the basic condition for achieving this goal. In 2017,the ratio of non-registered population to registered population in Shenzhen was 1.88,and the structure of permanent population was significantly improved. Shenzhen’s household size tended to be smaller and the burden of family support was reduced. The proportion of employment in service industry in total employment was 55.38%,which was basically at the level of middle-income countries. There are 215,400 scientific and technological activists,surpassing the level of Guangzhou but lagging behind Beijing and Shanghai. The forecast results show that there is a strong possibility that the trend of sustained population growth in Shenzhen continues before 2050 and will maintain a relatively long period of population dividend. Based on Shenzhen’s demographic characteristics and demographic structure changes,this report puts forward policy recommendations for promoting Shenzhen’s innovative development. We should make rational use of demographic conditions,continuing to maintain the advantages of population size,demographic dividend,population inclusiveness and human capital;We should take the initiative to adapt to population challenges and seeking solutions from the social,economic,cultural and political fields;We should strengthen the research on innovative population strategy and provide policy basis for Shenzhen’s future innovative development strategy.

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    作者简介
    焦桂花:焦桂花,广东医科大学人文与管理学院实验师,研究方向为人口社会学。
    傅崇辉:傅崇辉,深圳市云天统计科学研究所研究员,研究方向为人口健康。
    王文秀:王文秀,深圳市云天统计科学研究所助理研究员,研究方向为人口经济学。
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