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谢伏瞻
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    危地马拉:腐败依旧,经济稳定

    摘要

    2018年,危地马拉总统吉米·莫拉莱斯涉嫌贪腐的调查仍未结束,其国内严重的腐败问题仍未得到有效解决,危地马拉和联合国反对有罪不罚国际委员会之间的关系近乎破裂。得益于外部环境改善以及侨汇收入增加,危地马拉全年经济增速小幅提高,私人投资信心得到提振。通货膨胀率始终在目标区间内,货币政策空间尚存;外汇储备大幅增加,抵御外部冲击的能力得到提高。自然灾害对危地马拉造成的影响较大,但社会治安水平得到显著改善。同中美洲国家之间的关系仍是危地马拉的外交重点;尽管尚未建交,但危地马拉和中国之间的经贸关系得到进一步加强。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the investigation of corruption against Guatemala’s President,Jimmy Morales,has not been completed,the country’s serious corruption problem has not been effectively solved,and the relations between Guatemala and CICIG have nearly broken down. Thanks to an improved external environment and increased income from overseas remittances,Guatemala’s economy grew slightly,boosting private investment confidence. The inflation rate is always within the target range,and there is still room for monetary policy. Foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly,and the ability to withstand external shocks has been improved. The impact of natural disasters on Guatemala is huge,but the level of public security has been significantly improved. Relations with Central American countries remain the focus of Guatemala’s diplomacy,and economic and trade relations between Guatemala and China have been further strengthened,despite their lacks diplomatic ties between the two countries.

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    作者简介
    王飞:王飞,经济学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室助理研究员,主要研究方向为拉美经济。
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