本文分析了澳门博彩业收入在2014~2016年连续26个月下滑的主要原因以及2018年有两个月低增长的影响因素,指出澳门博彩业面临的主要挑战包括周边国家赌场的竞争、内地经济下滑以及赌场全面禁烟等,并在此基础上对2019年澳门博彩业的发展趋势进行预测。2014~2016年澳门博彩业严重下滑的主要原因是赌场贵宾厅长期过度放贷积累的泡沫破灭。澳门的博彩业处于增长期,对经济的衰退仍有一定的抵抗能力。由于周边赌场的竞争、赌场全面禁烟以及内地对资金外流的严格控制,未来澳门博彩业的增长将保持在较低的水平。
<<This paper first analyzes the main causes of the continuous 26-month decline of Macao’s gaming revenue from 2014 to 2016 and the two-month low growth in 2018. It then analyzes the main challenges facing Macao’s gaming industry,including competition of casinos in neighboring countries,the economic downturn of the Mainland and the total ban on smoking in casinos. Finally,the prospect of Macao’s gaming industry in 2019 is presented based on the analyses above. The core idea of the paper is that the main cause of the serious decline in Macao’s gaming industry from 2014 to 2016 was the bursting of bubble accumulated through years of excessive lending by VIP operators. Macao’s gaming industry is still in the phase of growing,and it still has some resistance to the economic recession. Due to the competitions from the casinos of neighboring countries,the smoking ban in all casino areas and the strict control of capital outflows in the Mainland,the growth of Macao’s gaming industry will remain at a low level.
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