The industry of science popularization is an emerging industrial form and an important supplement to the science popularization. The industry science popularization museum，is an important subject of the popular science. The research first analyzed and defined the concept of development capacity of science popularization museums；it expounded five characteristics of industrial capacity of science popularization museum，proposed a framework of statistical index system，and expounded the industrial capacity evaluation system of popularization museum via content and models. It then selected several typical and representative science popularization museums to obtain data through questionnaires，interviews and other means，using qualitative and quantitative methods. Research on the capacity of nearly 20 domestic science popularization museums were investigated and analyzed. K-means clustering experiments were used to analyze the industrial development capabilities of some typical science popularization museums in China. In addition，the research analyzed the development of science popularization industry about shanghai science and museum. Finally the research put forward the bottlenecks and shortcomings of the industrial development of science popularization museums，and the suggestions for promoting the development of science popularization museums in the new era.