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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2018年中东地区的安全形势与趋势

    摘要

    2018年中东安全形势呈负面发展。地区传统安全风险攀升,动荡国家武装冲突未出现明显好转,代理人战争仍为主要表现形式。北非多国政局失稳且短期内难以平复,存在诱发严重暴力冲突的可能性。暴恐活动向动荡地区周边的“脆弱地带”转移,非传统安全威胁与传统安全风险合流。大国争霸重新成为中东地缘博弈的主题,也为中东安全形势带来全新挑战,前景不容乐观。美国奉行极端功利主义政策,与盟友貌合神离,对伊朗全面遏制,激化伊核、巴以等地区热点问题。地区国家以中短期利益联盟替代传统同盟关系成为地缘博弈的主体,而不同利益联盟的交叉与重构进一步削弱地区安全架构的稳定性。中东博弈各方的战略推演多以“零和”为导向,或将阻碍地区安全局势向好发展。这对维护中国在中东地区的利益及“一带一路”倡议的推进造成负面影响。

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    Abstract

    The security situation in the Middle East has been negatively developed in 2018. The traditional security risks in the region have risen,and the armed conflicts in the turbulent countries have not improved significantly. The proxy war is still the main form of geopolitical conflicts. The political situations in many countries in North Africa are unstable and difficult to calm down in the short term,and there exists the possibility of inducing serious violent conflicts. Terrorism overflows to “fragile zones” around the traditional turbulent areas,while non-traditional security threats are merging with traditional security risks. The struggle of major powers for regional hegemony has once again become the theme of the geopolitical game in the Middle East,and it has also brought new challenges to the region. The prospects are not optimistic. The United States pursues an extremely utilitarian policy and is apparently acquiescing while contrary-minded with its allies. Due to the U.S’ comprehensive containment strategy toward Iran,some regional issues,such as Iran nuclear issue,Palestine-Israel relations,have been dramatically intensified. The traditional alliances have been partly replaced by short and medium-term interest group among the regional countries,which have become the mainstay of geo-games. The intersection and reconstruction of different interest groups further weaken the stability of regional security structure. The geo-political wrestlings in the Middle East are mostly guided by “zero-sum”,which may hinder the positive development of the regional security situation and have negative impacts on China’s interest in the Middle East and the promotion of “The Belt and Road” initiative.

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    作者简介
    王金岩:王金岩,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员。
    李子昕:李子昕,中国国际问题研究院发展中国家研究所助理研究员。
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