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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    中东政治发展形势及其走向

    摘要

    从整体上看,现阶段中东政治发展仍处在“中东大变局”的“长波”中。围绕着政治参与、政治变革、政治重建和转型等重大议程,中东国家政局呈现多棱图景:选举或公投加速了一些国家政局变动,强人政治回归成为新的现实;部分海湾国家加快了政治和社会变革进程,政治新生代逐渐崛起;与此同时,民众抗议运动引发了多国政治动荡,约旦等国进行政府改组,苏丹、阿尔及利亚发生政权更迭,且正在结束强人政治统治,政治转型趋向不明;战乱国家徘徊于动荡之旋涡,政治重建进程普遍受挫,且成为地缘政治博弈的角逐场。中东国家政局起伏和变动,其原因既有社会经济和民生问题的缠绕,又有内部政治派别斗争和社会思潮之激荡,还有地缘政治竞争和域外大国的干预,等等,其中,民生问题是撬动政局变动和政权稳定的主要因素。由此判断,中东政治发展走向呈现政治转型复杂化、政治安全问题尖锐化、战乱国家政治重建长期化、地缘政治博弈对政权影响持久化等态势。

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    Abstract

    On the whole,the political development in the Middle East is still part of the “long wave” of “Upheaval in the Middle East” since 2010. Around the major agendas of political participation,political reconstruction and transformation,the political situation in the Middle East presents a multi-faceted picture:elections or referendums have accelerated political changes in some countries,and the return of strongman politics has become a new reality;some Gulf countries have accelerated the process of political and social change,and the new political generation gradually rises;the mass protest movement has triggered political turmoil in many countries,thereby the government has been reorganized in Jordan and other countries,and the regime changes in Sudan and Algeria;war-torn countries have been mired in the turbulent whirlpool,their process of political reconstruction is generally frustrated,and they have fallen into a competition field for geopolitical games. The political situation in the Middle East is fluctuating and changing. The reasons include not only the entanglement of social economy and people’s livelihood issues,but also the struggle of internal political factions and social thoughts,as well as geopolitical competition and the intervention of great powers outside. Among them,the issue of people’s livelihood is often the main factor in instigating political changes and political stability. The political development of the Middle East is characterized by the complexity of political transition,the sharpening of political security issues,the long-term political reconstruction of war-torn countries,and the persistence of geopolitical games on regimes.

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    作者简介
    王林聪:王林聪,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副所长、中国非洲研究院副院长,研究员,兼任中国中东学会副会长、秘书长,中国社会科学院海湾研究中心副主任。主要研究领域为中东政治和国际关系。
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