2018年债券市场违约规模达到最高,违约主体呈现民营企业及上市公司占比扩大等特征,且违约普遍发生在各行业。本文通过研究2018年违约企业案例分析违约呈现的内外部特征,发现近年来宏观经济不景气、货币政策由松转紧、金融监管趋严以及国际经济形势紧张情况下市场流动性和风险偏好相互传导,导致融资环境严峻;同时,本轮违约企业存在前期激进扩张、主营盈利下滑、内部治理失控、或有负债爆发、债务结构失衡等五大问题。在此基础上,本文构建违约传导分析框架,并提出对风险预警的启示。
<<Bond default incidents frequently in 2018 more than ever,especially for some private enterprises or listed companies,and also defaults generally occur in various industries. Base on the research of cases,this report finds macroeconomic downturn and tightening of credit are the major default market features,as well as the mutual conduction between liquidity and risk preference under the tense international situation. Most default companies show aggressive investment style,profit decline,governance issues,contingent liability and unbalanced debt structure. On this basis,this report constructs a analysis framework of default conduction,and proposes implications for risk warning.
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