2018年中国经济处于改革攻坚的关键阶段,全年经济运行稳中有进、稳中有变、稳中有忧,整体呈现前高后低的特征。从经济运行情况看,短期内投资、消费、净出口三大需求同步下降,部分原因是地方严格债务监管及金融系统去杠杆。从财政运行看,财政收支缺口不断扩大,收入增速和质量有所下滑,中央基建支出作用显著,债务风险依然较高。此外,2018年开始的中美贸易战将成为未来最大的不确定性。在严峻的国内外经济形势下,中国经济总体保持了较好的态势,供给侧结构性改革持续发力,新旧动能转换不断加快,税收结构更加合理,新经济带动就业稳步增长,精准脱贫成效显著,城乡居民收入分配差距进一步缩小,经济增长质量逐渐提高。这些都为经济运行保持稳中求进态势创造了良好预期,对2019年可能出现的一些风险点不能小觑,要贯彻落实逆周期调控、结构性政策及社会保障政策来对冲风险以保持稳中有进的良好态势。
<<China’s economy was at a crucial stage of reform in 2018. The economy grew steadily throughout the year,with some changes and some worries. The whole economy has shown the characteristics of faster development in the first half and slower development in the second half. From the perspective of economic performance,the demand for investment,consumption and net export have declined simultaneously in the short term,partly due to the strict local debt supervision and the deleveraging of the financial system. In terms of fiscal performance,the gap between government revenue and expenditure has been constantly widening;the growth rate and quality of revenue has declined somewhat;the central infrastructure expenditure has played a significant role,and debt risk is still high. In addition,the Sino-US trade war starting in 2018 will be the biggest uncertainty in the future. Even in the context of a challenging environment both at home and abroad,China’s economy has maintained a good momentum. The supply-side structural reform has continued to exert strength;the transformation of the drivers of growth has continued to accelerate;the tax structure has been more adaptive;the new economy has promoted steady growth in employment,and the effect of targeted poverty alleviation has been remarkable. The urban-rural income gap has further narrowed,and the quality of economic growth has gradually improved. These have created good expectations for the economic to maintain a stable performance with good momentum for growth. Some risk points that may arise in 2019 can not be underestimated. We should implement counter-cyclical regulation,structural policies and social security policies to hedge risks and achieve a good momentum of steady progress.
<<Keywords: | Fiscal RiskSupply-SideMacro-Economics |