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    2018年深圳市房地产市场解析与2019年展望

    摘要

    2018年,深圳房地产开发投资稳步增长。住宅方面,受“三价合一”和“7。31”两轮政策影响,全年新房均价平稳,二手房均价微涨,两者成交皆较低迷,二手别墅较相邻普通住宅溢价明显。其他物业方面,商业用房整体成交微降;新建写字楼供需再创新高,南山区租金涨幅最大;湾区利好促进临深住宅成交。土地市场供应量微升,居住用地近五成用于建设纯租住房。

    展望2019年,深圳经济高质量发展为房地产业提供支撑。住宅方面,在“房住不炒”的基调下,更加强调因城施策,诸多利好叠加有望促进成交量价以稳为主、温和发展。其他物业方面,商务公寓市场整体降温,可售公寓愈发稀缺;写字楼大宗交易将逐渐常态化,南山写字楼组团有望打造湾区经济新格局。土地方面,居住用地供应向租赁市场倾斜,工业用地开发实现价值深挖。“直管模式”促进深汕合作区发展提速。临深片区利好促进深圳住房外溢需求释放。深圳住房租赁新政出台将开启租赁市场规范治理。

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    Abstract

    The residential market was affected by “unified transaction price,evaluation price and online sign price” and “731 new policy” obviously.The average price of new house was stable throughout the year,and the average price of second-hand houses rose slightly,and both transactions were lower.The premium of second-hand villa is more obvious than the adjacent ordinary house price.As to other property aspects,commercial housing transactions as a whole declined slightly.The supply and demand of new-built office hit a new high,and the rent of Nanshan increased the most.The advantages of Bay Area promote the sale of areas around Shenzhen.The supply of land market has increased slightly,and nearly 50% of residential land is used to build purely rented housing.

    Looking ahead to 2019,Shenzhen's steady and progressive economy will provide support for the development of real estate.In terms of housing,under the tone of no speculation in the real estate market,More emphasis on implementing different policies in accordance with the city.The superposition of many advantages will is expected to promote stable and moderate development of turnover volume and price.As to other property aspects,the overall business apartment market will cool down,and available apartments will become scarcer.Driven by the vitality of urban economy,the bulk trading of office buildings will gradually normalize,and the Nanshan office building group will is expected to create a new economic pattern in the Bay Area.In land market,the residential land will be inclined to use in the rental market,and the value of industrial land will be digging deeper.After the Shenshan Special cooperation Zone was directly managed by Shenzhen City,which will Speeding up city's development.Good news of the areas around Shenzhen promotes the release of housing spillover demand in Shenzhen.The introduction of the new housing lease in Shenzhen will open the regulation of the rental market.

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    作者简介
    宋博通:宋博通,建筑学科博士后,深圳大学基建部主任,深圳大学房地产研究中心常务副主任,副教授
    朱证旭:主要研究领域为住房政策、城市经济与房地产市场,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    陈卓远:陈卓远,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生
    张梦倩:张梦倩,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    黄舒婷:黄舒婷,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    胡荣平:胡荣平,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    黄秀梅:黄秀梅,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    赖如意:赖如意,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
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