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    2018年个人住房信贷市场分析及2019年展望

    摘要

    在中央“房住不炒”和“坚决遏制房价上涨”的政策背景下,2018年个人住房信贷市场保持了稳中趋紧的态势。从总量来看,2018年底个人住房贷款余额规模为25。75万亿元,同比增速连续八个季度下降;从价格来看,2018年12月全国个人住房贷款平均利率结束连续两年的上涨态势。从风险来看,虽然住户部门债务收入比上升较快,但受益于我国实施宏观审慎和差别化的住房信贷政策,新增个人住房贷款平均首付比例约为四成,抵御住房价格下跌风险较强,住户部门偿债率也处于世界中等水平,债务偿付风险较低,短期内房贷风险不构成对银行的显著影响。展望2019,我们倾向于认为房地产调控政策发生根本性转向的概率较小,房地产市场整体上将维持平稳态势或略微小幅上涨,个人住房贷款的余额增速保持平稳或者略有下降,首套房贷利率将会有较大幅度下降,二套房贷利率将保持平稳。

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    Abstract

    Under the policy background of “housing is for living in,not for speculation” and “Resolutely curb the rise of house prices”,the individual housing loan market has maintained a steady and tightening trend.From the perspective of total volume,the individual housing loans balance of financial institutions was 25.75 trillion yuan at the end of 2018,and the year-on-year growth rate of individual housing loans balance decreased for eight consecutive quarters.From the perspective of price,the average interest rates of individual housing loans have stopped the upward trend for two consecutive years in December 2018.From the perspective of risk,although the debt service-to-income ratio of the household sector is rising faster than other countries,benefiting from the implementation of macro-prudential and diversified housing credit policy in China,the value ratio of the new housing loans is about 60%,which means that the mortgages for housing loans are sufficient and the risks are small.And the debt service ratio of household is at a medium level in the world,so the risk of debt repayment is low.In general,the risk of individual housing loans does not have a significant impact on financial institutions in the short term.Looking forward to 2019,we tend to believe that the policies for regulating the real estate market are not going to change fundamentally.The real estate market will maintain a steady trend or slightly rising.The growth rate of the individual housing loans balance in financial institutions will remain stable or slightly decline.The interest rate of individual housing loans for first-home buyers will fall sharply,and the interest rate of individual housing loans for second-home buyers will remain stable.

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    作者简介
    蔡真:蔡真,中国社会科学院金融研究所金融实验室副主任,副研究员,国家金融与发展实验室高级研究员
    崔玉:崔玉,国家金融与发展实验室助理研究员。
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