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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2018年中国商业地产市场分析及2019年市场预测

    摘要

    2018年商业地产变革压力愈发迫切,传统零售业形势依旧严峻。全年商业地产投资额、新开工面积、销售规模等主要指标较2017年均出现下降,持续近一年的中美贸易摩擦对中国经济产生了不可预料的影响。面对这样的形势,预测2019年商业地产市场的不确定性增强、市场竞争加剧、商业创新加速、存量更新加速、资产证券化加速。写字楼市场与2018年中国经济起伏脉络相似,呈现先高后低趋势,共享办公继续扩张但增速放缓。酒店市场延续2017年的复苏势头,消费分化、资产坪效、技术革新仍是行业关注重点。长租公寓土地供应提速,租金稳中有涨,扩张速度整体放缓。资产证券化十分活跃,2019年也有望成为中国资产证券化的发展大年。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the pressure of commercial real estate reform becomes more and more urgent,and the situation of traditional retail industry is still severe.Major indicators such as the investment in commercial real estate,the area of new construction and the scale of sales for the whole year decreased compared with the average annual average of 2017.The trade war between China and the America that lasted for nearly a year had an unpredictable impact on China's economy and the future.Facing such a situation,it is predicted that in 2019,the uncertainty of commercial real estate market will increase,market competition will intensify,business innovation will accelerate,stock updating will accelerate,and asset securitization will accelerate.The office market is similar to the ups and downs of China's economy in 2018,showing a trend of high first and low second,while Shared office continues to expand but the growth rate slows down.The hotel market continues the recovery momentum of 2017,with consumption differentiation,asset efficiency and technological innovation still being the focus of the industry.The supply of land for long-term rental apartments increased rapidly,the rent increased steadily,and the expansion speed slowed down as a whole.Asset securitization is very active,and 2019 is also expected to be a big year for the development of asset securitization in China.

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    作者简介
    杨泽轩:杨泽轩,万商俱乐部创始人,工商管理硕士
    彭辉:彭辉,华侨城商业管理有限公司研策部经理。
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