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谢伏瞻
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    2018年住宅市场形势分析及2019年预测

    摘要

    2018年中国商品住宅市场的几个关键环节都发生了明显变化。在建设环节,住宅新开工面积大幅增长与竣工大幅下降并存;在投资环节,东、中、西部地区和各类城市住宅投资增速趋势明显分化;在销售环节,现房销售面积大幅下降,其销量占比显著降低,全年住宅销售单价显著高于预期,70个大中城市住宅销售价格指数增速离差加大等。从各方面数据变化看,房地产调控摈弃“一刀切”而采用因城施策、分类指导方式的效果已经显现,这是在构建长效机制过程中的重要一步,是调控和管理房地产市场的成功实践。根据模型预测分析,2019年住宅市场各类核心指标结构可能出现进一步分化,应对特定城市和出现异常的指标加以重点关注,制定针对性的应对策略和调控方案。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,several key links in China's commercial housing market have undergone significant changes.In the construction sector,the new residential construction area increased substantially and the completion decreased substantially.In the investment sector,the growth trend of residential investment in the eastern,central and western regions and various types of cities is obviously differentiated.In the sales sector,the sales area of existing houses has dropped dramatically,the proportion of sales has decreased significantly,and the unit price of residential sales in the whole year is significantly higher than expected.Seventy large and medium-sized cities housing sales price index growth deviation increased.From all aspects of data changes,the real estate regulation abandons the “one-size-fits-all” and adopts the city-based policy,classified guidance mode.This is an important step in the process of building a long-term mechanism and a successful practice of regulating and managing the real estate market.According to the prediction analysis of the model,the core index structure of the housing market in 2019 may be further differentiated.Special attention should be paid to specific cities and indicators of abnormalities,and specific strategies and control plans should be formulated.

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    作者简介
    张智:张智,天津社会科学院研究员,研究方向为宏观经济预测、房地产经济、城市经济。(基金项目:2018年度天津社会科学院重点课题《天津市宏观经济预测分析系统研究》,项目编号:18YZD-06)
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