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谢伏瞻
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    2018年的中国房地产市场及房地产金融

    摘要

    在“坚决遏制房价上涨”的政策背景之下,2018年商品住宅销售增速明显放缓,一、二线城市的高房价得到抑制,三、四线城市的去库存取得一定的成效。但依然有以下风险点值得关注:第一,一线城市租金上涨过快;第二,三、四线城市的房价泡沫积聚;第三,重视中小房企流动性问题;第四,除了要警惕房价快速上涨外,我们还要警惕房价大幅下跌引发的系统性风险。受城市化、住宅市场化、金融深化等因素影响,我国房价长期处于上升通道,加快住房制度改革和长效机制建设有利于防范和化解房地产市场风险。具体对策包括:大力推进住房租赁市场建设,实施租售并举的住房供给制度改革;开征合理的存量住房保有环节房地产税,使地方政府从根本上逐步摆脱对土地财政的依赖;金融层面需要改革既有的住房公积金制度、发展与住房租赁市场相配套的金融制度和产品,也要防范房地产市场风险向银行体系和非正规金融体系传导。展望2019年,我们认为房地产市场运行态势不会发生实质性的转变,商品住房销售增速可能会延续2018年的放缓趋势,房价涨幅整体回落,部分城市可能会出现同比回落情形,土地交易市场将回归理性。

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    Abstract

    Under the policy background of “Resolutely Curb the Rise of House Prices”,the growth rate of housing sales has slowed down significantly in 2018,and we have been curbed the precipitous rise of housing prices in the first-tier and second-tier cities,reducing excess inventory of housing in third and fourth-tier cities has achieved certain results. However,there are still several risks that deserve to be attention:the first,the rent of housing in first-tier cities is rising too fast. The second,the bubble of housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities is accumulating. The third,the liquidity risks of small and medium-size real estate enterprises. The forth,in addition to guard against the risk of a rapid rise in housing prices,we must be alert to the systemic risks caused by a sharp fall in housing prices. Affected by the factors such as urbanization,housing commercialization,financial deepening,China’s housing prices have been rising for a long time. Therefore,we need to accelerate the reform of the housing system and construction of long-term housing mechanism to prevent and resolve the risks of the real estate market. The specific measures we suggest as follow:in the first place,vigorously promoting the construction of the housing rental market and implementing the reform of housing supply system by both renting and selling. In another,imposing a reasonable level of property tax,so that local governments can gradually get rid of the dependency on the land finance. Finally,in financial aspect,it is necessary to reform the current housing provident fund system,develop financial systems and products that support the housing rental market;and it is also necessary to guard against the transmission of real estate market risks to banking system and informal financial system. Looking forward the next year,we believe that there will be no substantial change in the real estate market. The growth rate of housing sales may continue the slowdown trend slowdown trend in 2018;the growth rate of housing prices will fall back,and housing prices in some cities may experience a downward process. The land market will return to rationality.

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    作者简介
    蔡真:蔡真,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所国际金融与国际经济研究室副研究员,主要研究方向为房地产市场、货币理论与政策、风险管理。
    崔玉:崔玉,国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心研究员,主要研究方向为房地产市场、时间序列模型。
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