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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2018年的中国上市公司——兼论供给侧结构性改革的微观评估

    摘要

    2018年中国上市公司盈利能力总体下滑、治理水平日益改善、信息披露不断提高、研发投入有所放缓、回馈利益相关者力度加大,但也存在财务业绩稳健性不足、公司治理问题依旧突出、内部控制可信度有待商榷等诸多隐忧。上市公司财务数据评估供给侧结构性改革结果表明:资金脱实向虚方面,实体部门投资收益率较低,资金脱虚返实阻力仍然较大;经济结构调整方面,产业结构升级效果开始显现,并购重组热情大幅消退,创新投入动力有所衰竭,民营经济活力有待激活;五大改革任务方面,去产能难度依然较大,企业增产动力强烈,去库存补库存同时并存,上中下游行业差异较大,长期偿债能力增强,短期偿债能力下滑,营业成本和税负有所下降,但劳动力薪酬成本上升,薄弱行业回报率增加,补短板步伐有望加快。

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    Abstract

    In past 2018,the overall profitability of Chinese listed companies declined,the level of corporate governance improved,the standard of information disclosure improved,the amount of R&D investment slowed down,and the strength of social responsibility increased. However,there are still many worries,such as insufficient financial performance robustness,outstanding corporate governance problems,and the incredibility of internal control. Based on financial data of listed companies,we evaluated the effectiveness of supply-side structural reform. Firstly,the resistance of capital recovery to entity enterprise is still large,because real sector investment yield is low. Secondly,the results of the adjustment of economy structure show that:the effect of industrial structure upgrading has begun to appear,the enthusiasm for mergers and acquisitions has greatly faded,the motive force for innovation investment has been exhausted,and the vitality of private economy needs to be activated. Finally,the results of the five major tasks show that:it is still difficult to get rid of production capacity,and enterprises have a strong incentive to increase production;there are coexistence of destocking and inventory replenishment in different industries;long-term solvency is strengthened,and short-term solvency is declined;operating costs and tax burden are reduced,but labor compensation costs are increased;the rate of return of weak industries is increasing,and the pace of making up for shortcomings is expected to accelerate.

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    作者简介
    徐枫:徐枫,中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员。
    郭楠:郭楠,华北电力大学国家能源发展研究院研究员。
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