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    2018年的中国货币市场

    摘要

    本报告首先概括货币市场运行的总体状况,这部分内容主要阐明自2016年以来市场规模缩小的原因;其次对2018年前三季度货币市场价格联动机制进行分析,对整个市场的价格动态进行描述,重点从货币政策目标以及央行资产负债表角度分析了影响货币市场利率的内外因素;再次对货币市场的投资者结构进行分析;在完成上述分析后,我们对2018年前三季度货币市场情况的重要事件进行描述分析,最后展望2019年货币市场的运行态势。我们预计2019年货币市场规模将呈现恢复性增长,交易规模为750万亿元左右;全年降准操作在5次左右,法定准备金率下调幅度在3%左右;货币市场利率将进一步下行,短端利率预计保持在2%~2。5%,长端利率预计保持在2。8%~3%。

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    Abstract

    This report of the monetary market section mainly includes the following contents:in the first place,it summarizes the overall performance of the monetary market in China. This part mainly explains the reason for the scale shrinking of the money market since 2016. Secondly,the report analyzes the price linkage mechanism of the monetary market during the first three quarters of 2018,draws a picture of price dynamics change in the monetary market. In particular,we analyze on the influence factors of interest rates in the monetary market from the perspective of monetary policy objectives and the balance sheets of the central bank. Then,we do an analysis of the investor structure of the money market. After completing the above analysis,we analyze the important events in the monetary market in the first three quarters of 2018. At last,looking forward the performance of the monetary market in 2019:we believe that the trading volume of the monetary market will begin to resume growth in 2019,and the transaction is expected to reach 750 trillion yuan. The Peoples Bank of China will carry out about five times the RMB deposit-reserve ratio cut in 2019,so we have good reasons to believe that the RMB deposit-reserve ratio will be further reduced by 3%. The interest rates of the monetary market are expected to fall further,with the short-term interest rates expect to remain in the range of 2% to 2.5%,and the long-term interest rates expect to remain in the range of 2.8% to 3.5%.

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    作者简介
    蔡真:蔡真,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所国际金融与国际经济研究室副研究员,主要研究方向为房地产市场、货币理论与政策、风险管理。
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