在2018年严监管与严峻的金融形势下,中国信托业周期出现了拐点。在2018年前三季度,信托业务存量规模的季度环比增速连续三个季度为负数。这是自2010年有行业季度统计数据以来从未出现过的衰退信号。同期,新发行信托产品规模迅速下降,新发行的非证券类产品预期收益率及其相对国债的息差水平上升,行业风险资产规模快速上升都表明行业经营状况正面临严峻考验。这种形势与一年前的短期繁荣相比大相径庭。《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》(简称“资管新规”)的实施对整个金融体系造成了严重冲击。信托业受到拖累是难以避免的。此外,针对信托业的严监管和去杠杆略显滞后,但影响重大。仅仅在过去两年半的时间里就经历一轮完整的繁荣与衰退。大量事实表明了过去信托业对通道和杠杆业务的介入情况及影响。未来信托业的稳健发展将面临严峻挑战。
<<Due to the strict supervision and severe financial situation in 2018,China’s trust industry cycle has reached an inflection point. In the first three quarters of 2018,the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the scale of trust business has been negative for three consecutive quarters. This is a recession signal not seen since the industry quarterly statistics began in 2010. In the same period,the scale of newly issued trust products decreased rapidly. The expected yield of newly issued non-securities products and their interest margins relative to the treasury bonds increased,and the scale of risk assets in the industry increased rapidly,indicating that the industry is facing a severe test. This is a far cry from the short-term boom of a year ago. The implementation of the new rules of the asset management industry has had a severe impact on the entire financial system. The drag effect on trust industry is inevitable. In addition,the strict supervision and deleveraging of trust industry are lagging behind and have more significant impact. A complete boom and bust have been seen in the past two and a half years alone. A large number of facts show the involvement and influence of the channel and leverage business on trust industry. The steady development of trust industry will face severe challenges in the future.
<<Keywords: | TrustSupervisionDeleveraging |