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谢伏瞻
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    2018年的中国银行业

    摘要

    2018年,尽管实体经济运行压力较大,但商业银行的经营状况仍有所回暖。盈利能力方面,净息差有所回升,尤其是同业依赖度较高的中小银行,因为流动性较为宽裕,净息差改善尤为明显。风险方面,第二季度以后,银行业整体不良率小幅攀升,在很大程度上由强监管背景下,农村金融机构风险暴露更充分所致。上市银行中,已有部分银行不良率出现下降甚至“双降”。当然,虽然经营业绩为两年来最高水平,但银行业面临的挑战仍不容忽视。2018年上半年,受国内外经济环境影响,以及金融去杠杆的冲击,实体经济进入下行区间,企业部门(尤其是民营企业)面临较大的流动性风险。企业层面的风险不可避免地会传导至银行体系,预计在未来一段时间,银行业的资产质量仍面临挑战。

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    Abstract

    The commercial banks in China has a better performance during 2018,despite the real economy was under considerable downward pressure. The profitability of commercial banks has improved,especially for small and medium-sized banks with more inter-bank business,whose net interest margin has increased significantly due to abundant liquidity. Since the second quarter,the overall non-performing loan ratio of the commercial banks has increased slightly,which was largely caused by the more sufficient risk exposure of rural financial institutions under the strong supervision,while the non-performing loan ratio of listed banks in China has declined. Although better performance has been achieved in 2018,the challenges faced by the commercial banks cannot be ignored. In the first half of 2018,banks had suffered the economic downturn and greater liquidity risk of the enterprise sector (especially private enterprises),owing to the change of internal and external economic environments as well as the financial deleveraging,As risks of enterprise sector would inevitably be transmitted to the banking system,the asset quality of banks will remain a concern for some time to come.

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    作者简介
    曾刚:曾刚,中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员,博士生导师;毕业于中国人民大学财政金融学院,金融学博士;长江证券股份有限公司博士后;耶鲁大学访问学者;中国国际金融学会理事;南开大学国家经济战略研究院兼职教授;对外经济贸易大学金融学院兼职教授;中央财经大学金融学院兼职教授。
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