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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2018年的中国国际收支

    摘要

    2018年前三季度,中国国际收支格局呈现“经常账户逆差、非储备性质的金融账户顺差”的新变化。伴随国际经贸摩擦不期而遇,我国的外部环境更加严峻复杂,加大稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期政策落实力度,合理引导预期,确保经济平稳健康发展,已日益紧迫。一是国际经贸摩擦下中国对外贸易面临外部冲击叠加扰动;二是贸易顺差与贸易条件、中美汇率关联下对外竞争力受到内外约束;三是国际经贸摩擦下大国博弈的复杂性使人民币国际使用并非坦途;四是海外资产负债结构的成本收益倒挂下外汇风险承受与货币发行问题有待加快优化;五是人民币汇率动态与跨境短期资本流动共振加剧国际收支风险。防范化解国际经贸摩擦下国际金融重大风险,应健全国际收支安全战略,在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的指引下,进一步提升开放型经济新水平,实现金融开放、人民币国际化、“一带一路”建设、人民币汇率市场化改革与国际收支安全在“新时代”形成良性循环。

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    Abstract

    During 2018,the new change of China’s balance of payments was current account surplus and non-reserve financial account deficit. In 2018,China was facing a much more complex situation externally,especially when international trade friction met unexpectedly. It is increasingly urgent to stabilize employment,stabilize finance,stabilize foreign trade,stabilize foreign investment,stabilize investment,and stabilize expectation. China’s foreign trade faces external shock superimposed disturbance under international trade friction. China’s trade surplus,trade conditions,and external competitiveness are subject to internal and external constraints. The road of RMB internationalization is not smooth because of the complexity of mutual game between big countries. The overseas asset-liability structure’s cost-benefit problem needs to be solved. The RMB exchange rate dynamics and cross-border short-term capital flows together exacerbate the balance of payments risk. We need to prevent and resolve major risks of international finance and improve the international balance of payments security strategy. We should further to form a virtuous circle of the new level of open economy,the financial sector opening-up,RMB internationalization,“the Belt and Road” construction,the RMB exchange rate reform,and the security of the international balance of payments in the new era.

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    作者简介
    林楠:林楠,经济学博士,金融学博士后,中国社会科学院金融研究所国际金融与国际经济研究室副研究员,主要研究方向为人民币汇率和国际化战略、国际货币体系改革等。
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