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    2018年的中国宏观金融形势

    摘要

    全球经济在本轮复苏中经历了2016年的企稳和随后两年的持续改善,但2018年的经济运行呈现逐步逼近短周期顶部的迹象。2018年以来中国经济的下行压力有所凸显,只有通过制度改革提高全社会资源的配置效率和加快企业的技术进步,进而提高全要素生产率对增长的贡献水平,才能实现中国经济可持续和高质量的发展。从中国的金融运行情况看,货币供给增速继续放缓;表外融资下降幅度收窄,新增社会融资规模收缩步伐放缓;金融贷款增长较快,上市银行资产质量持续改善;货币市场利率中枢明显下行,市场交易活跃;股票市场量价齐跌,债券违约风险增多;人民币汇率贬值幅度加大,外汇储备出现连续负增长。无论从长期趋势还是短期波动的角度看,2018年以来中国经济增速的稳步、适度下行,有助于经济恢复其自身内在的运行规律。综合考虑当前相对宽松的宏观金融形势,人民币短期的贬值压力,国内经济持续推进供给侧结构性改革的需要,以及导致实体融资困境的主要因素等,货币政策需要坚持“稳健中性”的定力,将金融支持实体经济的工作重心放在疏通货币政策传导机制上。同时,积极的财政政策需要“减税”与“增加支出”并行。

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    Abstract

    The global economy in 2018 has been approaching the top of the cycle,experiencing the recovery since 2016. The downward pressure of China’s economy becomes visible in 2018. And,promoting the total factor productivity through the system reform is the optimal choice,that achieves the sustainable development of the China’s economy. In finance,the growth of China’s money supply continues to slow down,the decline of the off-balance-sheet financing narrows,the scale of increasing social financing has stabilized,the financial loan grows rapidly,the asset quality of listed companies continuously improves,the interest rates of the currency market fall significantly,the stock market falls in volume and price,the bond market default risk highlights,the depreciation of the RMB has increased and foreign exchange reserves showed continuous negative growth. The slight downward of China’s economy in 2018 will be conductive to the inherent law of its economy,regardless of the long-term trend or short-term volatility angle. Many factors affecting the monetary policy are intertwined,including the relatively loose financial condition,supply-side reform,and the financing dilemma of real economy. Therefore,the monetary policy is expected to maintain prudent and neutral,and focus on improving the transmission mechanism. In addition,a proactive fiscal policy is expected to be achieved through the tax reduction and increasing spending.

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    作者简介
    费兆奇:费兆奇,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所货币理论与货币政策研究室副研究员。
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