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本文基于1997～2017年增长，以扩大人民群众文教消费需求和促进城乡、区域共享为目标，检测2017年全国城乡文教消费需求总量应有空间：供需协调性测算32962。65亿元，消除负相关测算44074。24亿元，最佳比例值测算48744。75亿元，最小城乡比测算48744。75亿元，弥合城乡比测算64782。69亿元，城乡无差距测算97803。14亿元，地区无差距测算120713。01亿元，而实际总量仅为29695。31亿元。全国城乡文教消费需求相关方面的增长差距一目了然：一方面在于经济增长与基本民生、文化民生增进的协调性差距，另一方面在于城乡之间、地区之间民生与文化民生增进的均衡性差距。正是文教消费需求增长不力导致了文化生产供给增长不足，中国文化产业的发展空间必须从增强“内生动力”中拓展出来，文化产业成为支柱性产业本身并不是目的。在以上分析基础上，以消解发展不平衡不充分为最终目标，测算2020年全国文教消费总量增长空间：历年均增值目标39871。03亿元，供需协调性目标55595。60亿元，消除负相关目标64133。81亿元，最佳比例值目标69059。81亿元，最小城乡比目标68520。69亿元，弥合城乡比目标91596。97亿元，城乡无差距目标138563。97亿元，地区无差距目标169856。33亿元。
<<Based upon the growth from 1997 to 2017，and aiming at the target of extending people's culture and education consumption demand and promoting sharing between urban and rural areas，and among various regions，measuring to the “due space” of the countrywide total culture and education consumption demand in urban and rural areas in 2017 are as follows：3296.265 billion yuan in the target valued coordinated supply-demand；4407.424 billion yuan in the target valued avoiding negative correlation；4874.475 billion yuan in the target valued optimal proportion；4874.475 billion yuan in the target valued lowest urban-rural ratio；6478.269 billion yuan in the target valued closed urban-rural ratio；9780.314 billion yuan in the target valued no urban-rural gap，12071.301 billion yuan in the target valued no regional gap.But the actual gross was only 2969.531 billion yuan.It is clear at a glance that the growth gap with regard to countrywide culture and education consumption demand in urban and rural areas had two dimensions：One was the coordinated gap between economic growth and the improvement of people's basic and cultural livelihood；the other one was the balanced gap between the enhancement of urban-rural and regional people's livelihood and the improvement of people's cultural livelihood.It was the low increase of culture and education consumption demand that resulted in the short growth of cultural production and supply.The development space of Countrywide Area cultural industry must be exploited from boosting “endogenous motivity”.The cultural industry becomes a pillar industry，which in itself is not the goal.Based upon the above analysis，with the ultimate goal of resolving the unbalanced and inadequate development，the total growth space of countrywide culture and education consumption to 2020 are estimated as follows：3987.103 billion yuan in the valued average added value over the years；5559.560 billion yuan in the target of coordinated supply-demand；6413.381 billion yuan in the target of avoiding negative correlation；6905.981 billion yuan in the target of optimal proportion；6852.069 billion yuan in the target of lowest urban-rural ratio；9159.697 billion yuan in the target of closed urban-rural ratio；13856.397 billion yuan in the target of no urban-rural gap；16985.633 billion yuan in the target of no regional gap.
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