以消解发展不平衡不充分为最终目标,测算2020年全国文化投入预期增长目标:按照2000~2017年平均增速“自然增长”,可达到5203。00亿元;实现产值—财政支出—教科文卫综合投入—文化投入历年各项最佳比值“应然增长”,应达到9868。44亿元;进而实现文化投入与消费同构占比平衡“民生增长”,应达到12125。33亿元;最终实现文化投入各地人均值均等化“理想增长”,将达到23476。16亿元。以到2020年所需年均增长率衡量各类增长目标距离,分别测算各省域排行:上海、北京、内蒙古、青海、辽宁排在最佳比值增长目标前5位,青海、北京、西藏、内蒙古、陕西排在同构占比增长目标前5位,西藏、北京、上海、青海、内蒙古排在均等化增长目标前5位。
<<With the ultimate goal of resolving the unbalanced and inadequate development,the expected growth target of the countrywide culture investment to 2020 are estimated as follows:Based upon the average growth rate of “natural growth” from 2000 to 2017,the expected target of the countrywide culture investment should be 520.300 billion yuan:if it should get the ought-to-be growth at the best ratio over the years in terms of the productive value,the fiscal expenditure,the E.S.C.H.(education,science & technology,culture,health)input and the culture investment,it would reach 986.844 billion yuan:if the balanced isomorphism proportion of culture investment and consumption should come true,it would reach 1212.533 billion yuan:if the ideal growth of the equal culture investment should realize,it would reach 2347.616 billion yuan.By using the required annual growth rate to 2020 to measure the gap of all kinds of growth target respectively,the rankings of the various provinces are as follows:Shanghai,Beijing,Inner Mongolia,Qinghai and Liaoning rank top five in the growth target of best ratio:Qinghai,Beijing,Tibet,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi rank top five in the growth target of isomorphism proportion:Tibet,Beijing,Shanghai,Qinghai and Inner Mongolia rank top five in the growth target of equalization.
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