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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    增长视角的投资:2019年固定资产投资形势分析展望

    摘要

    投资是经济增长的基本推动力,是经济增长的必要前提。长期以来,中国经济主要靠投资拉动。虽然这种过度依赖投资的增长模式存在很多问题,但是,对于我们这样一个发展中大国而言,没有一定的经济增长速度是不行的。2019年中国经济下行压力继续增加,稳投资将成为稳增长的关键。稳投资的关键是稳基建,用基建投资的回升去抵消出口、房地产投资增速的下滑。预计2019年固定资产投资将进一步回升,基建投资增速可能会进一步反弹,基建投资增速可能将达到8%。在我国经济由高速度增长转向高质量发展的关键时期,我们必须要正确处理好稳投资与转方式、去杠杆、房地产调控以及政府投资和民间投资的关系,切不能搞一哄而上,更不能出现大水漫灌、重复建设和产能过剩等问题。2019年,建议投资者重点关注传统基建补短板、新型基础设施建设及相关行业。 <<
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    Abstract

    Investment is the basic driving force of economic growth,also is the necessary prerequisite for economic growth.For a long time,China's economy has been driven mainly by investment.Although there are many problems in this growth mode of over-reliance on investment,China,as a large developing country,must maintain a certain rate of economic growth.The key to stable investment is to stabilize infrastructure,and use the rebound of infrastructure investment to offset the decline of export and real estate investment growth.It is expected that investment in fixed assets will rebound further in 2019.The growth rate of investment in infrastructure will probably rebound further,and the growth rate of investment in infrastructure will probably reach 8%.In the critical period of our country's economic development from high-speed growth to high-quality development,we must correctly handle the relationship between stable investment and transfer mode,deleveraging,real estate regulation and control,government investment and private investment.We must not make mass investment and duplicate construction.In 2019,investors are advised to focus on traditional infrastructure repair board,new infrastructure construction and related industries.

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    作者简介
    张志前:张志前,博士,高级研究员,中国建投投资研究院副秘书长
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