本文运用面板协整检验、组均值面板完全修正普通最小二乘法(GroupMeanPanelFMOLS)考察了1996~2015年中国香港、新加坡、韩国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国、菲律宾和中国内地等8个东南亚国家和地区的经济结构转型、金融结构和经济增长之间的动态关系。经验研究结果表明,经济结构转型,包括产业转型和贸易转型,与金融结构演变是推动经济增长的重要因素,经济结构转型和金融结构转型之间存在“双轮驱动”的相互支撑模式。尤其值得关注的是,香港自1997年回归以后,经济结构中服务业占GDP比重保持在高位,金融结构中上市公司市值与私人信贷比值则呈现倒“U”形波动特征。经济结构转型和金融结构的持续优化为香港经济发展提供了强有力的支持,但香港仍然面临区域经济竞争中的新挑战。
<<The research investigates the dynamic relationship between nancial structure,economic structure transformation and economic growth in a panel of a group of 8 Southeast Asia countries and regions in the period of 1997-2015.Empirical study,with panel cointegration test and group mean panel FMOLS analysis,shows that the transformation of economic structure and financial structure evolution are important factors in promoting economic growth.Grange causality test reveals that the “two wheel driven pattern” support the existence of mutual benefits between economic restructuring and financial restructuring.Particular attention should be paid that after the return of Hong Kong to the motherland since 1997,the proportion service industry of GDP maintained a high level and continued to rise while the financial structure was in the shape inverted U.Hong Kong is experiencing sustainable economic development with the strong support of transformation of the economic structure and the continuous optimization of the financial structure,but is still facing new challenges in regional economic competition.
<<Keywords: | Economic StructureFinancial StructureRegional Economic CompetitionGroup Mean Panel FMOLSPanel Cointegration |