基于2003~2017年四川省银行业金融机构主要经济数据的变化情况,本文利用历史数据分析法和相关性分析方法,以信贷数据为关键工具,对2018年、2019年四川银行业主要数据指标进行预测,并对2018年、2019年四川省GDP进行预测和检验。结论证明信贷投放数据仍然是重要的经济增长预测要素,本文对相关数据指标的预测结果准确性较高,并据此提出了相关对策建议,包括围绕“一带一路”建立金融服务体系,实施金融精准扶贫、构建军民融合现代金融支持体系、加强地方金融风险防控监测等。
<<Based on financial institutions' major economic data for Sichuan bankingfrom 2003 to 2017,this paper uses historical data analysis method and correlation analysis method,taking credit data as the key tool,to analyze the main data indicators of Sichuan banking industry in 2018 and 2019,to forecast and test the GDP of Sichuan Province in 2018 and 2019. The conclusion proves that credit data is still the important predictor for economic growth,and the prediction on relevant data and indicators in this paper is nearly accurate.The accuracy of the prediction results of relevant data indicators is high,and based on this,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,including establishing a financial service system around “One Belt And One Road”,implementing targeted financial poverty alleviation,building a modern financial support system integrating military and civil affairs,and strengthening the prevention and control and monitoring of local financial risks.
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