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    2018~2019年奉贤服务业形势分析与研判

    摘要

    2018年,奉贤区服务业增加值持续增加,经济体量迅速增大,经济质量持续向好,全力推动了奉贤区经济转型升级。2018年1~6月,服务业增加值为184。35亿元,同比增长5。5%,占全区增加值比重为44。70%,比2017年占比增加了0。2个百分点。1~8月,服务业实现税收收入154。48亿元,同比增长22。5%,占全产业比重为41。22%,占比较上年降低,这主要缘于房地产业税收的大幅下降;奉贤区服务业仍是固定资产投资的主要力量,为196。83亿元,同比增长14。8%,在全产业中占比超过五成,高达73。69%。从服务业细分行业来看,批发零售业稳步增长,房地产市场销量大幅缩水,证券市场交易额大幅下降。预计到2019年,奉贤区流通市场持续增长,房地产市场在经过调整之后逐步升温,金融市场持续走低。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the added value of the service industry in Fengxian continued to increase,the economic volume increased rapidly,and the economic quality continued to improve,which promoted the economic to transform and upgrade. From January to June in 2018,the added value of the service industry is 18.435 billion yuan,increase of 5.5% by year over year,accounting for 44.70% of the total industry,an increase of 0.2 percentage points over 2017. From January to August,the tax revenue of service industry is 15.448 billion yuan,an increase of 22.5% by year over year,accounting for 41.22% of the total industry,which was lower than last year. This was mainly due to the sharp decline of tax revenue in real estate. The investment in fixed assets of service industry was 19.683 billion yuan,an increase of 14.8% by year over year,accounting for more than 50% of the whole industry,up to 73.69%. From the perspective of segmentation industry,the wholesale and retail industry has grown steadily,the sales volume in the real estate market has shrunk dramatically,and the transaction volume in the securities market has fallen sharply. It is expected that in 2019,the trading market will continue to increase,the real estate market will gradually warm up after adjustment,and the financial market will continue to decline.

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    作者简介
    纪园园:纪园园,经济学博士,上海社会科学院经济研究所、数量经济研究中心助理研究员,主要研究方向为计量经济学与大数据分析、计量经济理论。
    梅寒:梅寒,硕士,中共上海市奉贤区委党校科研部教师,主要研究方向为社会治理。
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