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    2019年上海奉贤经济形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2018年奉贤经济发展总体呈现三大特征:经济持续平稳增长,工业增长表现抢眼;需求增速放缓,投资增长动力足;收入水平稳步跃升,财税民生蓬勃向好。结合内外部经济形势,预计2019年奉贤区经济表现将大概率维持中高速增长,增速水平与全市水平持平。而长期来看,随着贸易环境的逐渐改善,奉贤区经济增长速度有望达到快于全市的增速水平。面对复杂多变的国际政治经济形势,奉贤需抓住产业能级提升、科技创新集聚、城市空间更新、文化产业发展等诸多机遇,同时也要防范中美贸易摩擦升级、消费升级、土地财政依赖严重等方面的问题。为了实现经济的高质量发展,建议从积极对接进博会做起,加大对奉贤东方美谷、“贤文化”等的宣传;紧跟科技前沿,前瞻布局,加大对科技创新的支持力度;进一步优化营商环境,促进优质项目落户。

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    Abstract

    The economic development of Fengxian in 2018 generally presents three characteristics:the economy continues to grow steadily and industrial growth is very fast,demand growth shows slower and the power of investment growth is strong,income level increases steadily and people’s livelihood improves greatly. Combined with the internal and external macroeconomic situation,it is expected to achieve a fast growth rate in 2019,and the rate is similar to that of total Shanghai. But in the long term,as the improvement gradually of trade environment,the economic growth of Fengxian is expected to achieve a higher rate than that of Shanghai. In the face of the complex and volatile international political and economic background,Fengxian needs to seize many opportunities such as industrial upgrading,agglomeration of scientific and technological innovation,renewal of urban space and development of cultural industry. At the same time,Fengxian guard against the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions,consumption upgrading and serious dependence on land finance. In order to achieve high-quality economic development,it is suggested that Fengxian could rely on “China International Import Expo” to broadcast “Oriental Beauty Valley” and “Xian Culture”. What’s more,Fengxian should better to follow the forefront of Science and Technology,and increase support for innovation. Lastly,it is very important to improve the business environment and promote the settlement of good quality projects.

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    作者简介
    朱平芳:朱平芳,上海社会科学院研究生院院长,研究员,博士生导师,主要研究方向为计量经济学、宏观经济预测分析与政策评价、科技进步评价与分析。
    邸俊鹏:邸俊鹏,经济学博士,上海社会科学院经济研究所、数量经济研究中心助理研究员,主要研究方向为计量经济学理论及其在政策评估中的应用研究。
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