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    2018~2019年中国旅游发展分析与展望

    摘要

    2018年全球经济处于高位回落进程,受宏观经济和贸易摩擦等因素所累,全球旅游增速有所放缓。2018年,是贯彻党的十九大精神开局之年,也是改革开放40周年。党和国家机构改革全面展开,供给侧结构性改革深入推进,简政减税减费有效实施,经济增长速度稳中微降,经济发展质量有所提升。2018年,中国旅游业进入转折之年:机构改革将旅游发展纳入新的发展轨道;旅游在对外开放和促进消费中扮演重要角色;旅游成为乡村振兴和精准扶贫新的亮点;“一带一路”倡议实施中旅游合作成效显著;生态文明建设制度基础的夯实为旅游发展带来机遇和挑战;全域旅游全面推进,旅游品质备受重视;旅游公共服务体系日益完善,制度保障和技术支撑齐头并进;旅游投资热度不减,投资规模、结构值得关注;主题公园和特色小镇热中有冷,隐忧犹存。2019年,是新中国成立70周年,也是“十三五”规划收官之年。面对新的发展形势,应深入思考两个问题:一是文化和旅游如何融合发展;二是经济由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,旅游业应如何通过改革与创新抓住机遇、迎接挑战。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the global economy witnessed slight falling back of recovery. Due to factors such as macroeconomic and trade frictions,global tourism growth has slowed down. The year 2018 marks the beginning of implementing the 19th party spirit and the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up. Reform of party and state institutions was carried out in an all-round way,deepening supply-side structural reform,effective implementation of simplified administration,tax reduction and fee reduction,steady but slight decline in the pace of economic growth,and improvement in the quality of economic development. In 2018,China's tourism industry enters the year of transition. Institutional reform brings tourism development into a new development track. Tourism plays an important role in opening up and promoting consumption. Tourism has become a new highlight in rural revitalization and targeted poverty alleviation. In the implementation of the “One Belt & One Road” initiative,tourism cooperation has achieved remarkable results. The foundation of ecological civilization construction system has brought opportunities and challenges to tourism development. Comprehensive tourism has been implemented and tourism quality has been attached great importance. The public service system of tourism has been improving gradually. Tourism investment kept increasement. Theme parks and small towns of characteristics has drawn attention. The year of 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of new China and the end of the implementation of the 13th five-year plan. In the face of the new development situation,two questions should be considered in depth,i.e. how to implement the integrative development of culture and tourism,how should tourism seize opportunities and meet challenges through reform and innovation,as the economy moves from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development.

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    作者简介
    宋瑞:宋瑞,中国社会科学院旅游研究中心主任、中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员、博士生导师,长期关注旅游政策、旅游可持续发展、休闲基础理论与公共政策。
    中国社会科学院旅游研究中心:
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