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回顾中国人口发展历程可以看到，中国已经进入由老年人口增长为主导的老龄化发展阶段。从1970年开始到2010年结束，这个时期65岁及以上老年人口共增加了8320万，平均每年净增208万，而15岁以下少儿人口减少了9017万，平均每年净减225万。因此，这个时期老龄化的主导力量是1970年开始的生育率转变及后来的低生育率。在此期间，老龄化水平从3。76%提高到8。40%，平均每年提高0。12个百分点。后一阶段是从2011年开始到2040年左右结束。从2011年开始，中国老年人口进入了一个快速增长时期，2010～2040年老年人口将总共增加2。24亿人，年平均增长率为3。62%，平均每年净增746万。在此期间，1950年代和1960年代出生高峰队列将全部进入老年。在老年人口快速增长的同时，总人口将在2018年左右开始负增长，这两种相反的变化趋势进一步提高了老龄化的发展速度，老龄化水平在2040年将达到23。84%，平均每年提高0。51个百分点。与前一个阶段相比，中期阶段老龄化速度提高了3倍。因此，中国老龄化的动力机制已经转变为以老年人口增长为主导力量。虽然教育、医疗健康发展所取得的成就为未来的人口发展奠定了良好基础，但因人口变化的历史关联性也带来了新的问题和新的挑战。中国的社会经济发展进入了一个新时代，正确认识未来的人口发展形势，从物质基础、人力资本、技术、制度和文化等各个方面积极应对新的人口挑战，充分挖掘人口发展潜力，及时防范人口风险，促进人口均衡发展，应该是未来中国人口发展的战略出发点。
<<Looking back on the development of China’s population，we can see that China has entered an aging stage dominated by the growth of the elderly population. From 1970 to 2010，the elderly population aged 65 and over increased by 83.2 million，with an average annual net increase of 2.08 million，while the population of children under 15 decreased by 9.17 million，with an average annual net decrease of 2.25 million. Therefore，the dominant force of aging in this period was the fertility change that began in 1970 and the subsequent low fertility rate. During this period，the level of aging increased from 3.76% to 8.40%，with an average annual increase of 0.12 percentage points. The latter stage starts in 2011 and ends around 2040. Since 2011，China’s elderly population has entered a period of rapid growth. In 2010-2040，the elderly population will increase by 224 million people，with an average annual growth rate of 3.62%，an average annual net increase of 7.46 million. In the 1950s and 1960s，the birth peak cohort will all enter old age. With the rapid growth of the elderly population，the total population will begin to grow negatively around 2018. These two opposite trends further increase the speed of aging development. The level of aging will reach 23.84% in 2040，with an average annual increase of 0.51 percentage points. Compared with the previous stage，the aging rate in the medium-term stage has increased three times. Therefore，the dynamic mechanism of China’s aging has been transformed into a leading force for the growth of the elderly population. Although the achievements of education and health care have laid a good foundation for future population development，the historical relevance of population changes has also brought new problems and challenges. China’s social and economic development has entered a new era. Correct understanding of the future population development situation，active response to new population challenges from material basis，human capital，technology，system and culture，fully tapping the potential of population development，timely prevention of population risks，and promotion of balanced population development should be taken as the strategic starting point for future population development in China.
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