Combined with cyclical and structural factors，world trade rebounded strongly in 2017，with real and nominal growth rates of 4.7% and 11%，the highest growth rates in the last six years. The rise in commodity prices was an important reason for the nominal growth rebound. The real growth rate of world trade in the first half of 2018 was 3.98%，which was mainly driven by actual output growth. The world trade situation in the second half of 2018 will be possibly slightly worse than the first half. The actual growth rate of world trade is expected to be between 3% and 4% for the year 2018. World trade growth will decline further in 2019 compared with 2018. The trade war，launched by US President Donald Trump，has had a big negative impact on world trade，with rough estimates suggesting that continued trade wars could reduce real growth rate of world trade by even 3.01%.