西亚北非地区2017年经济增长急剧放缓,主要原因是石油出口国经济状况不佳。预计2018年西亚北非地区经济增长相对于2017年加速,然而经济增长前景不确定性加大,下行压力主要来自地缘政治紧张局势升级和冲突加剧、石油价格波动加剧、财政整顿影响公共支出、改革进展缓慢等方面。撒哈拉以南非洲地区2017年经济增长率在2016年基础上翻了一番,增长提速幅度显著高于世界以及新兴市场与发展中经济体的平均水平。在全球增长放缓的大背景下,预计2018年撒哈拉以南非洲经济增长将进一步提速,但是提速的幅度将有所降低。该地区经济增长的下行风险主要来自全球经济增长形势不如预期、全球贸易紧张局势升级和金融环境收紧、结构性改革推进不畅、财政调整质量不佳。
<<The economic growth of the West Asia and North Africa slowed down sharply in 2017,mainly due to poor economic conditions in oil exporters,and is expected to accelerate in 2018. The downward pressure mainly comes from geopolitical tensions and conflicts,increased oil price fluctuations,decreased public spending against fiscal consolidation,and the sluggish reforms. The economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa doubled in 2017 than that of in 2016. Against the backdrop of slowing global growth,the economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow down in 2018. The downward risks to the region’s economic growth mainly come from the fact that global economic growth lower than expectation,the escalation of global trade tensions and the tightening of financial environment,the sluggish structural reforms and the poor quality of fiscal adjustment.
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