世界形势正面临百年未有之大变局。作为当今和可见未来世界中最重要的双边关系之一,中美关系不仅进入了质变期,而且这一变化构成了2018年全球形势交响乐章的主旋律。世界百年变局,还表现为伴随中美关系巨变而来的现行国际秩序进入一个瓦解与重建期。与主旋律共同构成2018年全球政治经济安全交响乐章“副部主题”的,有所谓的“国际自由主义”开始瓦解和新秩序的呼之欲出,主要工业化国家或地区间扑朔迷离的分合博弈,美元霸权体系出现松动,以及民粹主义与民族主义在欧洲和拉美发出的巨大回声。2018年出现的一些“插曲”亦可提及,比如朝核问题的峰回路转与中东局势的诡异难料。此外,G20峰会究竟是延续当下的主旋律还是开启新的乐章,人们拭目以待。
<<The world situation has been facing unprecedented changes during the past 100 years. A main theme has been that the United States and other Western countries are openly regarding China as their main competitor. Along with the major changes in Sino-US relations,the current international order has begun to enter a period of disintegration and reconstruction. “International liberalism” has started to collapse,a new order has come to the fore,and political divisions among the major industrialized countries and regions have become more obvious. Other manifestations of these major changes include a loosening of the U.S. dollar hegemony and a prevalence of populism and nationalism in Europe and Latin America. Although denuclearization on the Korean peninsula will not be smooth,a dawn of peace has finally emerged. In sharp contrast to the situation on the Korean peninsula,however,the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense.
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