2018年美国以“美国优先”为基础,对价值数千亿美元中国产品加征关税,中国被迫反击。本文基于全球贸易分析模型(GTAP),模拟分析了中国和美国间贸易冲突对中美经济及世界经济的影响。模型对包括澳大利亚、中国、日本、韩国、越南、印度、欧盟、美国、墨西哥、其他国家等在内的10个经济体、56个行业,做了中长期动态模拟。
<<In 2018,the United States,prompted by the idea of “America First”,levies tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese products,and China is forced to fight back. The China-US trade conflicts break. Based on GTAP,this article conducts simulation analysis of the impact of the trade conflicts on the Chinese economy,the American economy and the world economy. The modelling includes 10 economies of Australia,China,Japan,South Korea,Vietnam,India,European Union,United States,Mexico,other countries in the world,and 56 sectors to conduct a dynamic medium and long-term simulation.
<<Keywords: | GTAPChina-US TradeDynamic Simulation |