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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2018年中国税收形势分析预测及2019年初步展望

    摘要

    2018年税收收入,一季度累计增速为17。1%,高于经济增速10。3个百分点,二季度累计增速为14。2%,较一季度略有回落,但继续保持高于经济增速运行态势,高于经济增速7。4个百分点,三季度累计增速为12。7%,高于经济增速6。0个百分点。主要税种收入增速较上年提高,沿海重点税源大省,除北京负增长、天津低速增长外,其余省份税收收入增速较高。其他多数省份税收收入较上年增速提高,直接促使全国税收收入高速增长。2018年第四季度假如中国宏观经济形势处于低速运行态势,加上中国宏观政策实行减税降费措施,税收收入会明显回落,2018年全年税收收入增速会高于经济增速,2019年税收收入增速可能会与经济增速基本同步,甚至低于经济增速。

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    Abstract

    As for China’s tax income,it grows at 17.1% in the first quarter,10.3% higher than the economic growth,14.2% in the second quarter,lower than that in the first quarter but still 7.4% higher than the economic growth,and 12.7% in the third quarter,6.0% higher than the economic growth. The revenue of main taxes grows faster than last year. The coastal provinces or municipalities as major source of taxation witness a high growth of tax revenue except Beijing with a negative growth and Tian with a low growth. Most of the other provinces experience a high growth of tax revenue. All these contribute to the high growth of the national tax revenue. If China’s economy grows at a low speed in 2018 and China launches policies to cut taxes and lower fees,the tax revenue will drop sharply in the fourth quarter,the yearly growth of tax revenue will exceed the economic growth,and the growth of tax revenue will keep pace with or even fall below the economic growth in 2019.

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    作者简介
    付广军:付广军,供职于国家税务总局税收科学研究所。
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