以2018年美国对华301调查报告为切入点,用全球贸易分析模型分析301调查对中国产业和经济的潜在影响。研究发现:301条款的演变反映了美国贸易政策的转变,虽然WTO成立以来301调查的频率明显下降,但美国的贸易保护主义依然强势;2018年的301调查会对当前中国各产业的发展造成负面影响,对交通、电子、机械、航空、信息和医药等高科技产业造成的冲击尤为明显,其中,以机器人为代表的机械制造业和以新能源汽车为代表的交通运输业受损最为严重;在中国采取反制措施之前,美国能在贸易平衡和社会福利方面获得一定改善,但如果贸易摩擦升级,会对两国经济产生消极影响;此外,贸易摩擦提升了中美主要贸易伙伴的社会福利,也给他们带来不同程度的贸易逆差。
<<Based on the Section 301 investigation report on China in 2018,this paper analyzes impact of the Section 301 investigation on China's industry and the overall economic development with the GTAP model. The evolution of section 301 reflects the shift of American trade policies. Though the frequency of Section 301 investigation has decreased significantly since the establishment of the WTO,the trade protectionism in USA is still relatively strong. Section 301 investigation in 2018 will have a negative impact on the current development of China's various industrial sectors,especially on high and new technology industries,such as China's transportation,electronics,machinery,aviation,information and medicine. Among them,the machinery manufacturing represented by robots,and transportation represented by new energy vehicles,will get most severely damaged. Before China takes countermeasures,the United States will have some improvement in terms of trade balance and social welfare. But if the trade friction escalates,it is bound to have a negative impact on both economies. In addition,trade frictions will raise the social welfare of the major trading partners of China and the United States,and also bring them a different degree of trade deficit.
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