作为心理学与行为科学的综合理论,前景理论由卡尼曼和特沃斯基在1979年提出。众多学者对该理论进行了试探性完善修正,并将其应用于各个领域。本文在总结突发事件应急响应决策国内外研究现状的基础上,针对突发事件势态的复杂性、动态性、多阶段性等特点,从传统决策分析方法缺乏对决策者行为因素的考虑这一问题出发,回顾前景理论的发展及其相关基础模型,并对前景理论在突发事件应急行动方案中的研究进行梳理和归纳,分析其优越性及局限性。最后,对前景理论在应急决策领域未来的研究方向和应用做了进一步探讨及展望。
<<As a comprehensive theory of psychology and behavioral science,the prospect theory was proposed by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979. Many scholars have made a tentative refinement of the theory and applied it to various areas. On the basis of summing up the current researches of emergency response decision-making at home and abroad,in view of complexity,dynamic and multi-stage of emergency,this paper reviews the development of prospect theory and its related basic models. Then,considering lack of behavior factors of decision makers in traditional decision analysis methods,the researches of prospect theory in the emergency action plan of emergencies are summarized. Finally,future research direction and application of prospect theory in the field of emergency decision-making are further discussed.
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