为提高内河水上安全保障水平,针对水上安全事故分析及应急资源配置问题进行了研究。首先对长江水上安全现状进行了概述分析,对工程事故领域经典的事故分析模型进行全面梳理,在此基础上,以“东方之星”沉船事故为案例研究,运用多种事故建模理论对事故致因进行多视角分析。应用目标函数求解法,结合历史事故统计中获取的不同水域三种不同类型事故发生概率,对内河水上应急资源配置模型进行了研究,提出了优化建议。
<<In order to improve safety level of inland river,the problem of water safety accident analysis and emergency resource allocation was studied. First,the safety situation of the Yangtze River water are summarized and analyzed,the classic accident analysis theories in engineering accident field are conducted a comprehensive sort. On this basis,a variety of accident modeling theory is applied to analyze the accident cause from multiple perspectives by taking “Oriental Star” shipwreck as a case study. By applying the method of objective function and combing the three kinds of accident probability in different water areas obtained from historical accident statistics,the model of emergency equipment allocation of inland river water is studied and some optimization suggestions are put forward.
<<Keywords: | Water-transport SafetyAccident AnalysisEquipment AllocationModeling MethodObjective Function |