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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    英国经济形势

    摘要

    受脱欧不确定性影响,加之国际经贸环境拖累,2017~2018年英国经济增长整体乏力,增长表现与欧盟“渐行渐远”,欧盟经济高增长与英国经济逐渐下降分化明显。加之国际投资吸引力持续下降、消费对经济增长形成抑制、高通胀与高失业挤占货币政策调整空间等因素交织,脱欧的长期负面效应开始逐渐显现。同时,面对可能的持续性脱欧负面溢出效应,在正式脱欧后,灵活的贸易、货币及财政政策或将有助于释放经济活力,英国政策空间依然巨大。当前,脱欧问题依然存在不确定性,随着脱欧最后期限临近,各方博弈将会日趋激烈。

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    Abstract

    Due to the uncertainty of Brexit and the drag of the international economic and trade environment,the overall economic growth of the UK is weak this year,which falls behind that of the EU. Specifically,the EU’s high economic growth and the UK’s gradual economy decline are clearly differentiated. Coupled with the continued decline in the attractiveness of international investment,the inhibition of consumption on economic growth,occupation of monetary policy adjustment space by high inflation and high unemployment,the long-term negative effects of the Brexit began to emerge. However,in the face of possible negative spillover effects of Brexit,flexible trade,monetary and fiscal policies may help to release economic vitality after the formal Brexit,leaving still huge space for Britain’s economic policy. The trajectory of Brexit remains uncertain at the moment. As the deadline for Brexit approaches,the game will become increasingly fierce.

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    作者简介
    杨成玉:杨成玉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为欧洲经济。
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