2017年7月以来,英国脱欧进程跌宕起伏,特雷莎·梅政府的硬脱欧立场有所软化,力求围绕契克斯计划与欧盟达成妥协,但脱欧的最终方案仍未尘埃落定,无协议脱欧和二次公投等路径的可能性依然存在。脱欧的复杂性和不确定性深刻地影响着英国政治、经济、社会形势的发展:首先,脱欧问题上的分歧削弱了英国社会原有的政治、经济共识,围绕欧洲问题形成了新的分野,特别是英国政党政治、民主制度、国家统一面临挑战和危机;其次,尽管英国尚未离开欧盟,但脱欧路径的长期不明朗给英国经济带来的压力逐渐显现,经济增速下降,投资和就业受到影响,财政政策和货币政策左右为难;最后,英国国际地位和对外政策面临重新定位的压力。这些挑战和压力是伴随脱欧进程的短期现象,还是将开启英国国家转型的长期进程,与最终的脱欧结果息息相关,也深刻地影响着英国国家的未来。
<<Since July 2017,the Brexit process has been experiencing ups and downs. Theresa May’s administration has been softening its position of a “Hard Brexit”,seeking to compromise with the EU on Chequers plan. However,the final Brexit deal is still up in the air and the possibilities of a no-deal Brexit and a second EU referendum still exist. The complexity and uncertainty of Brexit have profoundly affected the development of the politics,economy and social reality in Britain:first of all,the divergence on Brexit weakens the original political and economic consensuses in the UK and forms new divisions on European issues. There are challenges and crises especially for British party politics,democratic governance and national unity. Moreover,though Britain is still a member of the EU,the uncertainty for a long time in the path to Brexit has gradually brought pressure on British economy. It retards the UK economic growth,negatively affects investment and employment and binds fiscal and monetary policies. Thirdly,the UK’s international role and foreign policy are under the pressure to be adjusted. All in all,no matter whether these challenges and pressures are regarded as a short-term phenomenon in the Brexit process or as an inception of a long-term national transformation,they are closely related with the final outcome of Brexit and profoundly affects the future of Britain.
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