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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    欧盟经济:全面企稳复苏,对外经贸收紧

    摘要

    2017年欧盟经济全面复苏,欧元区经济增长速度处于10年来的最快水平。在欧盟内部治理方面,成员国财政赤字和政府债务控制初见成效,劳动力市场改革取得突破,欧盟、欧元区失业率均持续下降。在对外经贸方面,2017年欧盟对外贸易大幅回升,但内部贸易规模逐年上升,内部贸易份额已处于10年来的最高水平。欧盟对外直接投资存量呈现逐年下降的趋势,显示出欧盟对外投资的积极性正在下降,而欧盟依然是吸引投资的重要目的地之一,其利用外商直接投资世界占有率近年来显著增长。展望2018年,欧盟经济增长动力相对单一,经济全面复苏的可持续性有待观察;内部治理控制系统性风险视野已由全面转为局部;量化宽松政策达到预期,期限结构出现上升回调压力,加之美联储加息,欧洲央行收紧货币政策窗口已然来临。

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    Abstract

    In 2017,the EU's economy fully recovered and the growth rate of the euro zone reached its fastest pace in ten years. In terms of the internal governance of the EU,the measures controlling the member countries' fiscal deficits and government debt have produced initial results,the reform of the labor market made breakthroughs,and the unemployment rate in both the EU and the euro zone declined continuously. In the trade area,along with a substantial pickup of the EU's external trade in 2017,the rising of the internal trade volume within the EU has reached such a degree as to make the intra-trade share at the highest level in a decade. The EU's OFDI(Outward Foreign Direct Investment)has been falling year by year,indicating its declining enthusiasm for investment abroad. The EU is nevertheless one of the most important destinations in attracting foreign direct investment and the world share of the EU in terms of foreign capital utilization has increased significantly in recent years. However,due to the lack of sufficient driving factors for economic growth,it remains to be seen whether the overall economic recovery is sustainable in the EU in 2018,especially that a comprehensive vision of the systemic risk of internal governance has been changed to a partial one,quantitative easing policy reached what has been expected,the pressure is on the rise for the maturity structure,and the raising by the US Federal Reserve of interest rate indicates that the European Central Bank's tightening of monetary policy is forthcoming.

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    作者简介
    杨成玉:杨成玉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所助理研究员。
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