2018年3月4日斯克里帕利中毒案导致英国及欧美20多个国家宣布驱逐俄外交人员。冷战结束已近30年,俄与欧美关系却重新高度紧张。早在1994年,俄总统叶利钦称已面临“冷和平”危险;自2014年3月克里米亚入俄以来,俄与欧美关系急剧恶化,俄总理梅德韦杰夫称进入“新冷战”,也有人称之为“小冷战”。德国与俄罗斯地缘位置相近、经济文化联系密切,在欧美对俄关系中发挥某种特殊作用。2017年9月联盟党在德联邦议会选举中再度获胜,默克尔于2018年3月第四次出任德国总理;美国总统特朗普2017年初上台,2018年3月俄总统选举普京再度连任。德国是欧盟中影响力最大的国家之一,默克尔连任保证了德国外交政策的连续性。德美俄都是当今世界重要国家,各自新政府的诞生使其关系更为复杂并具有较大不确定性,但也要看到不确定性中的确定因素,尤其是德国始终致力于缓和西方与俄罗斯的紧张关系,避免欧洲陷入“新冷战”。“小冷战”现已成为欧洲安全形势的“新常态”,未来应以欧安组织为平台,逐步缓和并改善西方与俄罗斯的关系,建立欧洲安全秩序稳定架构。
<<The Skripal poisoning case on March 4,2018led to the expulsion of Russian diplomats from Britain and more than 20 other European and American countries.Nearly 30 years after the end of the Cold War,Russia's relations with Europe and the United States have returned to high tension.As early as 1994,Russian President Boris Yeltsin described Russia as facing the danger of“Cold Peace”.Since Crimea's entry into Russia in March 2014,Russia's relations with Europe and the United States have deteriorated sharply,with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev calling it a“new Cold War”and some others calling it a“mini-Cold War”.Germany is geographically close to Russia and of close economic and cultural ties with Russia,so it has been playing a special role in European and American relations with Russia.The Union Party won again in the German Federal Parliamentary elections in September 2017,and Merkel took over as German Chancellor for the fourth time in March 2018;U.S.President Donald Trump came to power in early 2017,and Russian President Vladimir Putin was re-elected in March 2018.Germany is one of the most influential countries in the EU,and Merkel's re-election guarantees German diplomatic continuity.Germany,the United States and Russia are all important countries in today's world.The birth of their respective new governments makes their relations more complicated and uncertain.However,some certainties can also be seen among the uncertainties,especially Germany's continuing commitment to easing tensions between the West and Russia in order to avoid a“new Cold War”in Europe.The“mini-Cold War”has now become a“new normal”for the security situation in Europe.The future wayoutlies in the gradually ease and improvement of the relations between Russia and the West,and in order to establish a stable structure of the European security order,the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe can serve as the platform.
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