2017年朝鲜半岛局势发生了巨大变化,各方正处于逼近“摊牌”的前夜。朝鲜的核导技术接近成熟,正在构成对美国本土的实质性威胁。美国特朗普政府上台以来,将朝核问题解决列为最重要的外交议程,将对朝政策设定为“极限施压”(maximumpressure),抛弃了奥巴马政府时期的“战略忍耐”政策。美国除了继续利用联合军演对朝施加巨大压力外,还将朝鲜再次列入“支恐国家”名单,威胁采取武力解决的方式,外交上也对其进一步孤立。联合国安理会在2017年通过了四个涉朝决议,国际社会对朝施压的手段也接近于穷尽。在这种背景下,借助于韩国平昌冬奥会于2018年新年后开启的朝韩对话是一次难得的“机会之窗”。2018年3月8日特朗普接受与朝鲜领导人举行首脑会晤,金正恩随后多次明确表示致力于半岛无核化,由此半岛局势出现缓和势头,实现朝鲜半岛无核化也迎来重要历史机遇。
<<The Korea peninsular situation in 2017 has a huge change,in which related parties are approaching the showdown. North Korea's nuclear program is near mature so that it can threaten the continental of US. US treat North Korea unclear issue as the first foreign priority since Trump assumed power,which sets the policy of maximum pressure. The means that Trump government exerting pressure on North Korea includes continuing joint military drill with South Korea,list it as state sponsors of terrorism,threaten military strike,and isolated it diplomatically. International community is running out of the means on exerting pressure on North Korea after four UN resolutions issued. Back this background,the recent thaw since Pingchang Winter Olympic Games of 2018 is a very precious window of opportunity.
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