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    2017~2018年世界邮轮产业发展研究:强劲需求刺激产业持续高增长

    摘要

    2018年,全球经济增长速度明显得到提升,为邮轮产业发展提供了良好的基础。2018年邮轮将继续保持积极的发展态势,将有2690万人次乘坐邮轮,2025年有望达到3760万人次。邮轮市场集中度依然较高,2017年热门旅游目的地占比分别为加勒比地区35。4%、地中海地区15。8%。邮轮建造大型化和巨型化趋势较为明显,新造邮轮基本在10万总吨以上,2026年之前共有91艘在建邮轮。纵观全球邮轮产业发展形势,北美虽然在全球邮轮市场占有的份额有所降低,但优势在较长的时间内仍会得到保持,并因邮轮企业总部和邮轮母港经济而产生较大的经济贡献。欧洲邮轮市场较北美有更强的增长性,使其能够在邮轮全产业链发展中具有强有力的地位和发展潜力。亚太由于其良好的经济发展形势和相对稳定的国际环境,具有较强的邮轮市场发展潜力。在未来的发展中,亚太地区将在保持高速增长趋势的过程中,出现波动式增长,其中中国邮轮市场具备良好的发展基础条件,拥有良好的发展前景。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the global economic growth rate has been significantly improved,providing a good foundation for the development of the cruise industry. Cruise will continue to maintain a positive development trend in 2018,with 26.9 million passengers taking cruise,and is expected to reach 37.6 million in 2025. Cruise market concentration remained high,with 35.4 per cent in the Caribbean and 15.8 per cent in the Mediterranean in 2017,respectively. The trend of large-scale and mega-scale cruise construction is more obvious. The newly built cruise ships are basically over 100,000 gross tons,and there are 91 cruise ships under construction before 2026. Throughout the development of the global cruise industry,although North America’s share in the global cruise market has declined,the advantage has been maintained for a long time,and due to the headquarters of cruise enterprises and the economy of the cruise home port has made greater economic contributions. The demand of European cruise market is stronger than that of North America,which makes it have a strong position and development potential in the development of cruise industry chain. Due to its good economic development situation and relatively stable international environment,Asia-Pacific has a strong potential for the development of the cruise market. In the future,the Asia-Pacific region will witness volatile growth in the process of maintaining a high-speed growth trend. China’s cruise market has good basic conditions for development and good prospects for development.

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    作者简介
    汪泓:汪泓,博士,中共宝山区委书记,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:邮轮经济。
    史健勇:史健勇,博士,上海工程技术大学党委副书记,教授,研究方向:邮轮经济。
    梅俊青:梅俊青,硕士,上海吴淞口国际邮轮港,研究方向:邮轮经济。
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