2017年加拿大经济增长3%与前两年相比,各方面多有增长势头,其中消费、投资对增长拉动较大,进口和出口出现增幅(虽较小且进口超过出口),对外直接投资规模扩大,全国平均失业率下降(虽然一些省份失业率依然高企)。但是,该年经济发展也存在一些问题,比如下半年经济增长步伐放缓;第三季度出口大幅下滑,第四季度出口增幅微乎其微,从而全年出口增长幅度较低,商品贸易逆差扩大;耐用消费品支出下半年有所放缓;房价和油价上涨;一些地区失业率依然高企;人口老龄化对劳动力市场有影响;面对美国贸易保护主义的加强,北美自由贸易协定谈判步履艰难等。未来加拿大经济发展取决于几个因素:第一,世界经济形势与美国经济增长状况;第二,国际油价变动状况;第三,政府推进贸易多元化政策的进展;第四,北美自由贸易协议谈判结果;第五,移民政策及人口增长。美国总统特朗普提出“美国优先”的政策将促使加拿大投资与贸易多元化政策的继续推进,从而为中国与加拿大的经贸合作创造了契机。2018年加拿大经济增长面临一些不确定因素,需要加拿大政府适时应对。
<<In 2017,Canada’s economy grew by 3%. Compared with the previous two years,multiple factors contributed to this new momentum. Consumption and investment played an important role in stimulating economic growth. Canada’s imports and exports,though troubled by low growth and an excess of foreign imports,did saw some increase. Despite high unemployment rate in some provinces,the scale of foreign direct investment increased,while the national average unemployment rate declined. Canada’s economic growth can be attributed to the following factors:(1) the global economic situation and the economic growth of the U.S.,(2) the fluctuation of international oil price,(3) the implementation of the government’s trade diversification policy,(4) the result of NAFTA negotiation,(5) immigration policy and population increase. The US President Trump proposed that the policy of “American First” would promote the continuation of the policy of investment and trade diversification in Canada,thus creating an opportunity for the economic and trade cooperation between China and Canada.
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