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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    巴西反腐运动的持续与政局走势分析

    摘要

    持续四年之久的“洗车行动”沉重打击了“官-商”腐败犯罪系统和传统权贵利益集团,给巴西当前的行政、立法和司法系统带来了全面冲击。本文将对以“洗车行动”为核心的巴西反腐运动进行全面梳理,指出此次反腐运动所呈现出的新特点并解析其背后的原因,进而阐释反腐运动对巴西当前政治局势的影响,并在此基础上对巴西政坛未来走势进行预测。可以预见,随着2018年总统大选的临近,巴西政局变数大增:一方面,在经济危机和反腐运动的双效作用下,传统政党声誉不佳,总统候选人因“洗车行动”而充满不确定性;另一方面,在左右翼分歧中寻找中间道路的“第三股势力”正日益壮大。而这也为特梅尔政府的最后一年执政带来了战略布局的新契机,以捍卫本届政府的政治遗产。

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    Abstract

    The Operation Car Wash in Brazil,which lasted for four years,has dealt a heavy blow to the organized crime and corruption system and the interests of the traditional elite,bringing an overall impact on the current administrative,legislative and judicial system. This article will conduct a comprehensive review of Brazil's anti-corruption operation centered on the Operation Car Wash,pointing out the new features and analyzing the reasons behind,and then explore the its impact on the current state and future trend of Brazilian political arena. It is foreseeable that with the approach of the 2018 presidential election,the uncertainty of political situation in Brazil will continue to increase. On the one hand,under the dual effects of the economic crisis and the anti-corruption campaign,the traditional political parties suffer from a poor reputation and the presidential candidacy remains uncertain due to the Operation Car Wash;on the other hand,the Third Way is growing,seeking a middle ground between the left and the right wing. And this has also brought new opportunities for a strategic layout in the last year of Michel Temer's governance in order to defend his politics heritage.

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    作者简介
    孙怡:孙怡,葡萄牙新里斯本大学法学博士在读,湖北大学巴西研究中心研究人员、外国语学院葡语系教师,主要研究领域为葡语国家综合研究、中国与葡语国家关系研究。
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