巴西作为正在崛起的新兴国家代表,近两年发展遭遇瓶颈,政局动荡、经济衰退、社会矛盾尖锐等诸多问题集中爆发,发展不确定性凸显。2017年,是巴西看到希望与转机的一年。政治趋向稳定,特梅尔总统艰难地从弹劾泥潭中脱身,应能完成到2018年底的任期。经济摆脱衰退,重回增长轨道。外交持续调整,注重南北“平衡外交”,强调务实与灵活性。中国与巴西“全面战略伙伴关系”不断深化,战略融合与产业对接加速,“新时代”双边关系发展面临新机遇。巴西亦面临不少挑战:政治“碎片化”严重,反腐冲击余波荡漾;养老金等结构性改革难以推进,经济持续发展动力有待加强;“返贫”问题突出,社会治安亟待改善。2018年是巴西大选年,亦是决定其发展方向的关键年,后续走势值得密切关注。
<<As the emerging country of emerging countries,Brazil has encountered bottlenecks in the past two years. Many problems,such as political unrest,economic recession and sharp social contradiction,have erupted,and the uncertainty of development is highlighted. 2017 is a year when Brazil sees hope and turnaround. Politics tends to be stable. President Temer is struggling to get rid of the impeachment quagmire and should be able to finish his term of office by the end of 2018. The economy is getting rid of the recession and returning to the growth track. Diplomacy continues to adjust,focusing on the balanced diplomacy between North and South,emphasizing pragmatism and flexibility. The comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Brazil has been deepened,and strategic convergence and industry docking have been accelerated. The development of bilateral relations in the new era is facing new opportunities. Brazil also faces many challenges:the “fragmentation” of politics,the ripple of the impact of anti-corruption,the structural reform of pension and other structural reforms is difficult to push forward,the momentum of sustained economic development needs to be strengthened;the problem of “returning to poverty” is outstanding and social security needs to be improved urgently. 2018 is the election year of Brazil. It is also the key year to decide the direction of development. The follow-up trend deserves close attention.
<<Keywords: | CrisisBrazilThe Government of Temer |